Friedrich Merz, the prime candidate of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is about to step into the spotlight as the incoming chancellor who, in one of the most important federal elections in Germany’s history, has significantly shifted the political fights there. The surprise election took place six months before the scheduled one, and it was the direct result of the coalition government led by Olaf Scholz being unable to govern effectively. He is not the clear favorite to win, and his four years in office will be packed with peril.
For a fractured political field, the election results point to the most representative picture. Although the CDU came out on top, the party did not gather enough votes to have absolute power in the Bundestag. Consequently, the party has to form a coalition government, which will most probably include either the Green Party or the Social Democrats (SPD). Discussions are expected to be long-lasting, with Scholz still acting as the interim chancellor until a new government is elected. The development will affect the domestic politics of Germany and Europe for a long time.
The issue foremost in the election campaign was the economy, as Germany has been the victim of a second year of contraction in this respect. The decline has been caused by the overly high energy costs, the fact that industrial ideas are outdated, and the slowdown in digital technology. The CDU would want to cut corporate taxes and deregulate the economy to create a spurt in the growth of the economy, whereas its partnering parties would advocate for more public investment in infrastructure and technology. The resolution of these disputes will be crucial for the recovery of Germany’s economy, it is clear.
Another disturbing topic raised in the election campaign was immigration. The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) used the moment to its advantage and had the highest-ever vote share due to public dissatisfaction with the refugee policies. Although such an approach is out of the question on the part of Merz, there might still be introjections within the party to make governance problematic. The argument over issues such as the cultural integration of different groups and social spending is a reflection of these latitudes.
Merz experiences high hopes also in the big European Union. Germany’s role in the European Union (EU) as the main force has been mixed up with internal concerns and geopolitical changes. Merz has been advocating the necessity of a more balanced European Union, particularly in the fields of defense and technology. Nevertheless, it will involve negotiating the intricate web of nation-state relations as well as with France, Poland, and other EU member states.
Besides, the election will influence the position of Germany on global problems such as climate change and Ukraine. The Greens and SPD, the potential partners of the coalition, are demanding ambitious climate regulations and worthwhile backing of Ukraine against Russia. The capacity to balance these objectives with the CDU’s focus on fiscal conservatism will present a major examination of Merz’s governance.
As the coalition talks started, Germany is left with such a gloomy (or:unsteady) political future. The establishment of a durable government responsible for facing economic problems, regulating migration, and leading Europe will be crucial. Merz’s success now represents one of the most important moments in German politics so far, but without his skills in such a volatile and bifurcated political landscape his victory will not have a huge impact.